Sources close to the former president told the New York Times that Trump hopes a re-election will divert media attention devoted to the Jan. 6 burglary investigation. The Washington Post cited two advisers that Trump plans to announce in early September.
Among the various decision-making factors is Joe Biden’s low popularity, at 38.7%. But a pre-election re-announcement is likely to be negative, giving Democrats a way to galvanize anti-Trump voters.
Everett Vieira III, a political science professor at California State University in Fresno, said it would make more sense for Trump to wait until after the midterm elections in November to announce his re-election bid.
“There, if there is [o congressista republicano] Kevin McCarthy became Speaker of the House of Representatives and the parliamentary commission of inquiry will be canceled on January 6,” the analyst told Lusa.
If Republicans also win the Senate, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell can block all of Biden’s nominations “and Trump can campaign on that.”
“Trump has name recognition and people are fighting for him to this day, but I think he’ll wait until after the midterms,” he said.
According to political scientist Jeffrey Cummins, interim dean of the School of Social Sciences at California State University, Fresno, an early announcement is often made “to preempt other candidates’ announcements and attract donors early.”
However, the case may be a question of getting the campaign started before the Justice Department formalizes criminal charges against Trump for participating in the capital robbery.
“It makes the case that a presidential candidate should not be the target of a criminal conviction,” Cummins suggested. The analyst said a criminal trial against Trump would likely favor Republican challenger Ron DeSantis, but warned that such a case would take a long time to come together and reach a verdict, with time running out until 2024.
A congressional panel investigating the Capitol Hill robbery is cooperating with the Justice Department on matters involving Trump. Commission chairman Benny Thompson told reporters the department was investigating a bogus ‘big electorate’ scheme designed to fraudulently keep the former president in power.
What will happen if Trump is run and formally impeached? And if you succeed? “It’s unclear what would happen if Trump wins a criminal case and the election,” Geoffrey Cummins agreed. “We’ve never had a situation like that.”
CNN reported last week that Donald Trump has been constantly questioning his aides about when the public hearings will end, and the impact has been greater than expected. The parliamentary committee was expected to complete its work by mid-July, but the timetable has been extended. The next public hearing is expected to be held on Thursday, July 21.
With the general election and presidential election more than two years away, political scientist Bryan Adams thinks it’s too late to start campaigning.
The analyst, a professor at California State University in San Diego, said it would not be favorable for Trump to announce his re-election now. “I don’t think Ron DeSantis and other potential candidates will get away with that,” he explained.
Adams said an early announcement would have no effect on derailing the aspirations of Republican politicians such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
“Historically, if a person announces himself as a presidential candidate years in advance, it doesn’t get great results,” he said.
He also thinks the idea that Trump would be renominated if he wants to run again is too fleeting. “I think the race will be primarily between Republicans.”
This view is consistent with the content of several articles in the US press, from Politico to CNBC, and reports of Trump-related “fatigue” among major Republican donors examining the credibility of other candidates. .
“The sooner a candidate is announced, the more time he’s walking around with a target on his back,” said Everett Vieira.
ARYG // PDF